AAVE at $180, are you chasing it?
The governance proposal aims to transfer all trademarks and IP to the DAO, and Aavenomics 3.0 is still evaluating a permanent burn mechanism—once the news broke, AAVE surged from 159 to 187 in two days, an 18% spike. But just now, it dropped back to 180, with contract volume approaching $1.1 billion. Is this a real narrative upgrade or just a sell-off after a squeeze?
Let's look at the surface: good news landed, but the price retraced.
On October 2, it peaked at 187.5, today it dropped to a low of 176, now hovering around 180 with repeated friction. The daily RSI is 72, overbought; ADX is 41, trend still intact; after the 4-hour peak, it formed a flag pattern and pulled back. The candlesticks tell you: 175-176 is the first daily support, 170 is the starting zone, all technical indicators say one thing: the trend is unbroken, but don’t chase recklessly in the middle.
First thing: what rose this time wasn’t the price, but "ownership."
On October 2, Aave Labs dropped a bombshell: establishing a Cayman memberless foundation to transfer trademarks, domains, and protocol IP all under the DAO’s name.
Don’t get it? Let me translate:
Previously, AAVE token holders were just "users," now they become "shareholders." Who owns the trademark, who holds the IP, and whether it can be sold will be decided by token holders. The foundation has no voting or veto rights; board appointments and charter amendments remain with the DAO.
What level of event is this?
This is the first time in DeFi history that a leading protocol truly returns legal ownership of core assets to its token holders. Plus, Stani simultaneously mentioned the Aavenomics 3.0 permanent burn mechanism—if implemented, it would be a nuclear-level upgrade to the supply narrative.
But remember one thing:
The current burn is only an "expectation," not a "fact." Expectations can pump or dump the price.
Second thing: the protocol itself is stronger than you think.
Don’t just focus on the governance proposal; AAVE’s fundamentals are the real trump card:
V4 deposits surpassed $1 billion for the first time, active loans at $310 million
Newly launched on Arc, Base live, Coinbase tokenized stocks can be used as collateral via Equities Hub
Officially released MCP service, AI agents can directly read the protocol
Ongoing buybacks: DAO annual budget $50 million, weekly buys between $250k and $1.75 million
Circulating supply 15.4 million, total supply 16 million, market cap $2.5-2.8 billion. Still far from the all-time high of 660, a huge gap remains.
In plain terms:
AAVE is not a meme; it’s the "central bank" of DeFi. You can’t avoid it when depositing, borrowing, or liquidating. Such a protocol, when it dips, someone buys; when it rises, no one wants to sell.
Third thing: there’s a technical warning signal to watch.
From October 1-2, it rose from 159 to 187, an 18% gain, but contract volume and short liquidations were high, futures volume once near $1.1 billion.
The good news is real, but part of the rise was squeezed out.
That’s why it’s normal to fail above 187 and fall back to 180. Daily RSI 72 is overbought, 15-minute RSI back to 52, short-term bulls are resting. Structurally, this is the first decent pullback after the main rise; 180 is right in the middle of the retracement—risk/reward is average, not the best entry point.
Key levels to note:
Resistance: 183-185 → 187.5-188 → 196 → 200 (sentiment threshold)
Support: 176-175 → 170 (starting zone) → 162
A daily close below 175 is just weakening; a confirmed break below 170 means a "deeper correction."
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
IP ownership to DAO proposal, DeFi’s first ownership revolution
Aavenomics 3.0 burn mechanism on the way
V4 deposits over $1 billion, Base/Arc/Coinbase collateral fully rolled out
$50 million annual buyback supporting the floor
Clearly stronger than BTC, event-driven independent rally
On the other side:
Daily RSI 72 overbought, 18% rise in two days needs digestion
Squeeze above 187 has inflated gains
BTC stuck in 83,000-87,200 range, October 14 inflation data is a hard test
If governance vote fails or terms change drastically, narrative will be revalued immediately
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Focus on structure, not calls. Single trade risk within 1% of account; AAVE daily volatility $8-10 is normal.
Buy on pullback (more aligned with daily):
Don’t chase at 180. Prefer to wait for a long lower shadow or 4-hour recovery at 176-175, then scale in, stop loss below 172. First target 185, if it holds, look at 187.5/196. Only consider breakout if volume surges and closes above 188, stop loss below 183, target 196-200.
Short-term short (only on resistance):
If rebound to 185-188 shows volume upper wick and 4-hour fails to recover, light short, stop loss above 190, target 176/175. Don’t guess tops around 180; RSI overbought can dull further.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 175 without recovery, exit longs, watch 170/162. If BTC breaks below 83,100 effectively, AAVE’s relative strength will be suppressed, reduce leverage.
AAVE now is like UNI in 2020—
Everyone thought "governance tokens are useless," then DeFi Summer came and it took off.
AAVE at 180, you think it’s risen too much.
When it returns to 660, will you regret not even daring to buy the 175 pullback?
What you lack is not opportunity, but the patience to hold the opportunity. $BTC$ETH$AAVE#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
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