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八百里青禾
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周日和朋友喝茶聊天，
说“$UNI 上周冲到10.9，这周能否上攻到12美金？”
我想说$UNI 这周想冲12美元，难度非常大，主要原因有两点：
一是上方阻力重重。
9月23日冲高到10.93美元后快速回落，
当天成交量近2900万枚，
说明这个位置套牢盘和获利抛压很重。
之后几天一直在9.15-10.20美元区间震荡，
日均成交量从2893万枚萎缩到400-500万枚，
量能跟不上，
短期缺乏上攻动力，
技术面RSI也接近超买，有回调压力。
二是12美元离当前价位太远。
目前价格在9.6-10美元附近徘徊，冲到12美元需要单周涨幅超20%，在没有重大利好刺激的情况下很难实现。
所以上攻12美金真有难度。
但会不会有意外惊喜呢？
除非同时出现三个极端条件：
Robinhood Chain交易量暴增、
CME期货提前释放利好、
$BTC 带动大盘暴涨。
否则这周大概率在9.15-10.28美元区间震荡。
12美元可能要等到10月中旬CME期货正式上线前后，
才有机会触及。
八百里青禾
$UNI dropped directly from $10.9 to around $9 in this wave, which means the good news has been fully priced in and profit-taking has occurred.
It had risen 113% in the past month.
The positive news of the SEC opening compliance channels and CME launching futures had already driven the price up,
After big players completed the final strike, they directly dumped to cash out,
Plus the $UNI supply in exchanges hit a record high, so the selling pressure was already large,
The short-term price collapsed instantly.
What’s next? The key is to closely watch the $9.16 support level:
If it holds and can rise back above $9.46, it can push back up to $10.5;
If it fails to hold and breaks below $8.46, it may further drop to $7.6 or even lower.
But don’t panic too much, the mid-to-long-term logic remains intact: after Robinhood Chain goes live, there will be daily real buybacks and burns, and CME futures are a long-term gateway for institutions to enter. The narrative of tokenized assets is far from over.
There’s still room to rise.
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