#OctoberRateHikeOdds
About OctoberRateHikeOdds
US August PCE data is due at 8:30 am ET on Sept 30, becoming a key test for October rate expectations. CME FedWatch pricing for another 25bp hike reportedly neared 70% before falling to around 50%. Fed officials remain wary of inflation but differ on timing: Governor Barr sees rising risks, while NY Fed President Williams says policymakers can wait for more data after September’s hike. Can PCE confirm further disinflation before Sept payrolls data on Oct 2?
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OctoberRateHikeOdds Oblíbené příspěvky
MACRO BRIEF: THE PCE PIVOT
Cooler core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3% est.) just shifted the narrative. Rate hike odds for October are now below 50%.
The market reacted instantly:
• $BTC surged back above $85K.
• $ETH reclaimed $2,700.
• Total market cap back to $2.96T.
The path of least resistance now looks higher. Watching for a daily close above these levels.
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh
Hashmeta_x
Morgan Stanley: $BTC BTC is mirroring gold in the 1970s.
$Gold corrected hard, then broke out to new highs.
Bitcoin looks like it’s on the same path.
If this continues, the real breakout could still be ahead.
$BTC #BTCETF7DayInflows3B
📊 Fed Rate Watch: October Expectations Shift Watch: October Expectations Shift
October hike odds have dropped from ~71% to 43%.
▪️ 43% chance of a 25 bps hike
▪️ 57% chance of no hike
▪️ Implied expected increase: ~0.11 percentage points
For crypto, the next move depends on inflation data, Fed signals, and liquidity.
Expectations are shifting — confirmation matters more than speculation.
#BTC #CryptoMarket #FedRates #OctoberRateHikeOdds #OKXOrbit
DYOR. NFA.
🔥 October Rate-Hike Bets Are Cooling — Tonight’s PCE Is the Key! 👀
Think of PCE as a guide, not a decision-maker—it can shift rate expectations, but it doesn’t determine the Fed’s move by itself.
📊 Cooler PCE: rate-hike expectations may fade → BTC could test $85K+ 🚀
📉 Hotter PCE: pressure could return → BTC watches $83K → $82K → $81K.
🎯 PCE = the macro catalyst. BTC = the reaction.
$BTC $ZEC
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #BTC #ZEC #Crypto #Fed#OctoberRateHikeOdds
#OctoberRateHikeOdds The Fed may be getting exactly what it wanted: uncertainty 👀
October hike odds have swung from nearly 70% toward 50%, with PCE next and payrolls just two days later.
What caught my attention is how fragile that pricing looks. A cool PCE print could quickly weaken the hike case, only for strong jobs to revive it.
This isn't one-data-point trading anymore. Markets need inflation and labor to tell the same story before the Fed's next move becomes clear.
Tonight’s market direction hinges on 8:30 Core PCE.
If PCE rises to 0.4%, October rate-hike expectations could heat up, putting more pressure on ETH’s floor.
Meanwhile, Micron earnings are tonight—I’m bullish ahead of the report.
#CorePCE #Ethereum #Micron #OctoberRateHike
#OctoberRateHikeOdds #MicronEarningsAhead #US30YYieldBreaks5.6%
prices dropped 3% in one day, yet no one in the crypto circle is talking about it.
WTI fell from over $90 to 89.24, and Brent also dropped by 2.6%.
Honestly, this matter has little to do with the crypto world, but it's not completely unrelated either.
When oil prices soften, inflation pressure eases a bit, giving the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut rates. That's the logic.
But don't rush to pat yourself on the back.
Oil price drops could mean demand$BTC #MicronEarningsAhead
#OctoberRateHikeOdds Rate expectations moving from nearly 70% to around 50% in such a short time really shows how uncertain the market is right now 👀 One data release can completely change the mood.
For me, the PCE number is less about guessing whether the Fed will hike again and more about seeing whether inflation is actually cooling in a convincing way. 📊
And with payrolls coming right after, there’s still another big piece of the puzzle ahead. Feels like a “watch the data, not the noise” kind of week 😅☕📈
BTC & GOLD — Market Update
Bitcoin (BTC) fell around 1.7% to near $83,000 on September 28 as oil prices moved back above $100 and broader crypto markets gave back part of Friday’s gains.
$BTC Gold (XAU/USD) also came under heavy pressure, falling more than 3% toward $4,150/oz. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and increased expectations of another Fed rate hike are weighing on gold.
BTC vs Gold: Both markets are currently reacting to the same macro pressure—higher oil prices, yields and tighter monetary-policy expectations—although their price moves can differ significantly.
Key levels to watch:
• BTC: $83K area
• Gold: $4,150–$4,200 area
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus
